Bigger Than the Sound tries to predict the nominees for this year's Video Music Awards.
By James Montgomery
Katy Perry
Photo: Amy Sussman/ Getty Images
I've been told that the nominations for the 2011 MTV Video Music Awards -- which air live Sunday, August 28, at 9 p.m. ET on MTV -- are going to be announced on MTV and MTV.com on Wednesday night (July 20) at 11 p.m ET, and that means you should probably get ready for a whole lot of Katy Perry. And Adele. And Britney Spears. And Lady Gaga. Oh, and Rihanna too.
That's because, to paraphrase Beyoncé (oh yeah, she'll probably get nominated too), it's been girls who've run the world in 2011, and the VMAs will probably be no exception. Perry — who has basically been unstoppable since last summer — figures to be the most nominated artist, with this year's breakout star, Adele, close behind. Britney, Gaga and all the rest figure to be in the hunt too. In fact, one has to wonder if the folks behind the show will just go ahead and eliminate the Best Male Video category altogether. More room for the ladies that way.
Of course, we won't know for sure until those nominations are officially revealed, but while we wait, I figured it was time to dust off the old Prognostication Cap and try to predict the 2011 VMA nominees in advance. I've done this for seemingly every awards show in the past, and sometimes I even manage to avoid embarrassing myself completely (not always, though).
So without any advance knowledge — and using as many sweeping generalizations as humanly possible — here are my picks for the 2011 MTV Video Music Awards. Accuracy not entirely guaranteed.
Best Male Video
In a year dominated by females, I suppose someone has to win Best Male Video. I think it's a given that Bruno Mars, Chris Brown and Eminem all land nods here, and I suspect Justin Bieber will sneak in too, if only because it builds off his Best New Artist win last year. The fifth spot is up for grabs, though in a pinch, I'll go with Pitbull, if only because of the recent success of "Give Me Everything." Lupe Fiasco or Trey Songz are also viable choices. My picks:
» Bruno Mars, "Grenade"
» Chris Brown, "She Ain't You"
» Eminem feat. Rihanna, "Love The Way You Lie"
» Justin Bieber, "U Smile"
» Pitbull, "Give Me Everything"
Best Female Video
Sure, Video of the Year is the night's biggest award, but given the success of every artist with a pair of X chromosomes, the Best Female Video might be the toughest — and not just to win. Predicting who even gets nominated is a challenge, considering there are only five spots available. Adele and Katy Perry seem mortal locks, and Rihanna is close. Britney will probably earn a nom too, which means that either Beyoncé, Lady Gaga or Nicki Minaj will be left on the outside looking in. Told you this was going to be tough. My picks:
» Adele, "Rolling in the Deep"
» Britney Spears, "Hold It Against Me"
» Beyoncé, "Run the World (Girls)"
» Katy Perry, "E.T."
» Rihanna, "S&M"
Best Rock Video
My official title at MTV News is "rock editor," but even I had a hard time coming up with five nominees here. Since 30 Seconds to Mars won last year, I suspect they'll be back to defend their crown. Folks were excited about the Foo Fighters' return, so pencil them in too. Mumford & Sons may very well be the year's most unexpected success, which should earn them a nod. The other two slots? I'm not gonna lie, I just picked names out of a hat.
» 30 Seconds to Mars, "Hurricane"
» Foo Fighters, "Rope"
» Foster the People, "Pumped Up Kicks"
» Linkin Park, "Waiting for the End"
» Mumford & Sons, "Little Lion Man"
Best Hip-Hop Video
A wide-open category, and one that raises several questions: Can Eminem win for the second year in a row? Will Nicki Minaj manage to bum-rush the boys' club? Is Kanye West's epic "Runaway" mini-movie even eligible? I'm not going to pretend to know all the answers, but it certainly makes for an interesting field. In the end, I left Em off — since "Love the Way You Lie" was released in such a nebulous time (August 2010, a month before last year's VMAs and a full 12 months before this year's) — and went with the Beastie Boys, since I have a creeping suspicion they'll earn a nod or two, and this seems as logical a place as any. Nicki and Kanye are in (though I went with the latter's "Monster" video), and so is Lil Wayne. For the last spot, I went with Lupe Fiasco, though it wouldn't surprise me to see Tyler, the Creator here instead.
» Beastie Boys, "Make Some Noise"
» Kanye West (featuring Jay-Z, Rick Ross, Bon Iver and Nicki Minaj), "Monster"
» Lil Wayne (featuring Cory Gunz), "6 Foot 7 Foot"
» Lupe Fiasco, "The Show Goes On"
» Nicki Minaj, "Super Bass"
Best Pop Video
Another big-time category, another bunch of deserving artists destined to be left out. I like Britney's, Katy's and Gaga's chances, and I'll toss Rihanna into the mix too. For the fifth spot, I went with Bruno Mars, since, otherwise, this category would basically just be Best Female Video, Part II. Of course, in doing that, I excluded Adele, Beyoncé, Ke$ha and about a dozen other worthy acts too. Prognostication is hard work, people.
» Britney Spears, "Hold It Against Me"
» Bruno Mars, "Grenade"
» Katy Perry, "E.T."
» Lady Gaga, "Born This Way"
» Rihanna, "S&M"
Best New Artist
Who will follow in the footsteps of Biebus Christ (and Lady Gaga) and take home the Moonman for Best New Artist? Good question! This is always one of the hardest categories to predict, and this year is no different: The only sure things seem to be Mumford & Sons and Wiz Khalifa, and though Robyn isn't exactly new, she's new enough here (and made some terrific strides over the past 12 months), so I think she's a lock. In a pinch, I'll pick Foster the People (big radio hit) and Tyler, the Creator (big buzz), though Kreayshawn could sneak in too.
» Foster the People
» Mumford & Sons
» Robyn
» Tyler, the Creator
» Wiz Khalifa
Video of the Year
Last year's Video of the Year race featured a trio of underdogs — 30 Seconds to Mars, B.o.B, Florence and the Machine — thrown into the mix. Will 2011 follow suit? Probably not. Adele seems to be a no-brainer, even if most folks have never seen the video for "Rolling in the Deep." Katy, too, but it remains to be seen which of her videos gets the nod. (I went with "Firework." It's mad inspirational.) Em will be back — though one has to wonder if "Love the Way You Lie" peaked too early to be considered a genuine front-runner — and Gaga should return also. I went dark-horse with my fifth pick, taking the Foo Fighters' "Rope" over bigger clips from Beyoncé and Rihanna, mostly because I've got a sweet spot for VHS.
» Adele, "Rolling in the Deep"
» Eminem (featuring Rihanna), "Love the Way You Lie"
» Foo Fighters, "Rope"
» Katy Perry, "Firework"
» Lady Gaga, "Born This Way"
Did we get it right? Share your picks in the comments!
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